政策变化下，印尼镍业背后的中国投资者探索非洲等替代选择

SHANGHAI/JAKARTA - Chinese companies that helped build Indonesia’s nickel industry into the world’s dominant producer are looking as far afield as Africa for longer-term alternatives as rising policy pressure tests the investment model that reshaped global supply.

Tsingshan Group is considering a major development in Madagascar, the country’s mines ministry said, while Lygend Resources is looking at a project in Tanzania as well as restarting the Koniambo operation in New Caledonia, according to industry sources.

The Chinese companies were among those that developed the smelters and industrial parks that turned Indonesia into the centre of global growth for the metal used in stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries after Jakarta banned ore exports in 2020.

Indonesia’s share of production surged to more than 60 per cent of global mined nickel output in 2025, up from just over 30 per cent in 2020, according to US Geological Survey data.

The low-cost Chinese-backed output pushed the nickel market into surplus, lowered prices and forced higher-cost producers elsewhere, including Glencore, BHP and Sumitomo, to close or suspend operations or seek buyers.

But since taking office in late 2024, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has focused on raising state revenue and spending, including a US$20 billion (S$25.7 billion) free meal plan.

In late May, he outlined plans to bring exports of coal, palm oil and ferro-alloys under centralised state control. Nickel pig iron, the main nickel product by volume for Chinese producers, was later said to be excluded, but the proposal added to investor concerns over policy stability.

Even before that plan, tighter nickel ore mining quotas, proposed tax hikes and a sharp upward revision to Indonesia’s benchmark mineral price had unsettled investors and led the China Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia to write a strongly worded letter to Prabowo warning that the measures could deter future investment.

“It’s definitely negative for the industry,” said Tim Hoff, a senior mining analyst at Canaccord in Perth. “If you have the government adding bureaucracy and controlling what you can sell your commodities for, then that will impact the scale of your investment.”

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia fell 6 per cent in 2025, compared with 19 per cent growth a year earlier. Investment in mining peaked in 2024, while new investment into base metals refining has also plateaued since then.

Tsingshan, the world’s biggest stainless steel producer, has submitted a proposal worth several billion dollars to build an industrial park covering a wide range of minerals including nickel to Madagascar’s government, the country’s Mines Ministry told Reuters. Madagascar Mines Minister Carl Andriamparany said the proposal was in review and no mining permits had been granted.

Lygend, which helped pioneer high-pressure acid leach processing to produce raw materials for nickel-rich batteries in Indonesia, is also looking abroad. It is in talks to buy a stake in the undeveloped Kabanga nickel project in Tanzania, according to sources.

In the Pacific, Lygend recently made an offer to New Caledonia’s publicly owned mining group SMSP for a stake in the idled Koniambo nickel project following site visits last October and November, SMSP told Reuters.

These prospective investments would be each Chinese company’s first nickel forays outside Indonesia. REUTERS

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