中美关键矿产冲突为哈萨克斯坦带来机遇

Kazakhstan has become essential in the evolving critical minerals rivalry between the United States and China, itself a key facet of the tumultuous trade war between them. With recent initiatives on the part of Trump administration, Kazakhstan’s prominence and potential as a vital U.S. partner had grown considerably.

Trade Rivalry between the U.S. and China

The China-U.S. trade war began during Trump’s first presidential term in 2018, when Washington imposed 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. China retaliated with identical tariffs on a comparable $50 billion worth of American goods, particularly agricultural, energy, and automotive products. By 2019, the U.S. raised the sum of the tariffed goods up to $360 billion, and China responded with the imposition of tariffs on $110 billion goods. Although in 2020, the states were able to reach a truce – the Phase One agreement – their competition did not cease. While the United States scaled up its tariffs on the Chinese technology sector, China elaborated its legal tools to restrict the export of sensitive technologies.

The trade tensions continued when U.S. President Joe Biden came to office. He increased tariffs on electric vehicles, solar cells, and batteries, as well as put restrictions on the export of semiconductors. This time, China responded strategically by targeting the most vulnerable part of the U.S. import system – the supply of critical minerals. China imposed constraints on the export of critical minerals and rare earth elements (REEs). In particular, the Chinese government restricted the export of gallium, germanium and graphite, which are essential critical minerals for defense and electric vehicle batteries.

The peak in reciprocal tariffs and export controls came in the first year of the second Trump administration. Tariffs skyrocketed following “Liberation Day” but were suspended when China again put export controls on key critical minerals, such as tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium. The countries agreed on a 90-day truce in May 2025, and Trump had to lower the tariff rates to 30 percent in return for access to Chinese critical minerals. In September, the U.S. Department of Commerce tightened export controls on Chinese companies that accessed restricted American technologies through affiliates and third parties. In response, China declared extensive rare earth export controls, overtly demonstrating its leverage to retaliate. This action again led Trump to concede to another truce for a one-year period during his meeting with President Xi Jinping in the APEC summit in South Korea on October 30.

In February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs. However, the administration is seeking alternative ways to impose the penalties it desires on foreign countries, including China.

Critical minerals and REEs have been central to the trade war because of China’s dominance in the global supply chain. China controls around 60 percent of global production and 85 percent of the processing capacity of these strategic minerals. China is also the largest exporter of critical minerals to the U.S., supplying over half of U.S. demand for 24 critical minerals and 90 percent of REEs demand in 2024. Given the importance of mineral raw materials for the development of semiconductor manufacturing, green technologies and defense infrastructure, China’s primacy puts the U.S. in a vulnerable position.

Kazakhstan as a Strategic Partner in the U.S. Critical Minerals Supply Chain

Acknowledging the limits in critical minerals supply chain and their adverse impact on trade competition with China, the United States has prioritized the development of critical minerals in collaboration with other resource-rich countries. One of them is Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia. Kazakhstan possesses 21 out of 50 minerals that are classified as critical in the U.S. The country holds large reserves of uranium, copper, chromite, gold, titanium, tungsten, and rare earth elements. It is estimated that Kazakhstan may contain third largest global reserves of rare earths. In total, the country’s mining sector accounts for 12 percent of GDP.

The government of Kazakhstan has also demonstrated a strong interest in developing its minerals industry. For example, in 2025, it allocated $127 million for geological exploration, more than any other Central Asian state. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has emphasized the role of rare earths in the long-term development of the country and, in an article for the U.S. outlet The National Interest earlier this year, he outlined the importance of cooperation with the U.S. in advancing the critical minerals industry.

Although the partnership between the United States and Kazakhstan in critical minerals is at the nascent stage, a solid groundwork has been laid over the last two years. In 2024, the U.S. launched the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue to foster cooperation with the Central Asian states in the minerals industry, ranging from exploration to processing stages. In the same year, the U.S. Department of State and Department of Energy held the U.S.-Kazakhstan Strategic Energy Dialogue in Kazakhstan, aimed at developing energy security and critical mineral supply chains between the U.S. and Kazakhstan. The sides also signed a memorandum of understanding, reinforcing the outcome of the dialogue with a legal framework.

Kazakhstan joined the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) Forum, a high-level international platform involving major economies, such as the U.S., EU, Australia, Japan, and others. Participation in the MSP Forum not only highlights Kazakhstan’s role in the global minerals industry but also provides substantial opportunities to secure Western investment and infrastructure support.

The partnership between the U.S. and Kazakhstan on critical minerals was advanced during the C5+1 Summit in Washington on November 6, 2025. U.S. investing firm Cove Capital agreed to allocate $1.1 billion to the development of Kazakhstan’s largest tungsten deposits in Upper Kairakty and North Katpar. It is noteworthy that the U.S. government expressed support for the project by backing it with $900 million in financing from the Export-Import Bank, which demonstrates a high-level commitment to Kazakhstan.

Areas for Improvement

Despite the progress that has been made in critical minerals cooperation between the United States and Kazakhstan, there is still room for improvement. In particular, most efforts remain focused on dialogue rather than concrete joint actions. The U.S. can deepen the partnership by prioritizing the development of strategic projects with Kazakhstan. Last year, the U.S. signed bilateral agreements with Australia and Japan, which lay down comprehensive and detailed provisions to promote the critical minerals supply chain. Washington and Astana can modify their own bilateral agreements to include more advance frameworks. Considering Kazakhstan’s potential in turning into a strong critical minerals partner, establishing a joint agreement that outlines financing commitments, timeline, technology transfer, and other enforcement mechanisms is an important step.

Another milestone for the U.S. in deepening engagement in the minerals sector of Kazakhstan is launching projects that extend beyond mere resource extraction. Greater investment is needed in the geological exploration and processing stages of the supply chain. Kazakhstan’s reserves of critical minerals and REEs have been left underexplored after the Soviet period. The processing stage has also been underdeveloped. For decades, Kazakhstan’s raw materials industry has been predominantly confined to mining, which has significantly limited the country’s ability to gain higher value-added benefits across the supply chain. Therefore, there is a need for projects aimed at modernizing exploration and developing downstream processing capacities.

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