塞尔维亚-中国2026：技术伙伴关系、地缘政治定位与中国在西巴尔干地区存在的新阶段

The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], based in Ljubljana, regularly monitors and analyses political, economic and geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the Balkans, Europe and across the world. In its research, IFIMES assesses that the recent visit by the President of the Republic of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, to China signals the beginning of a new phase in the Serbia-China strategic partnership, in which technology, robotics and artificial intelligence are becoming the main drivers of relations, surpassing the importance of traditional infrastructure projects. At the same time, by intensifying its cooperation with China, Serbia is seeking to strengthen its regional geopolitical position further and establish itself as a technological and logistics hub of the Western Balkans. Against this backdrop, the following key findings from the comprehensive analysis, “Serbia – China 2026: Technological partnership, geopolitical positioning and a new phase of the Chinese presence in the Western Balkans”, underscore the strategic significance and long-term implications of the evolving Serbia-China relationship.

Technological partnership, geopolitical positioning and a new phase of the Chinese presence in the Western Balkans

The multi-day official visit by the President of the Republic of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, to China, which took place from 24 to 28 May 2026, is among Serbia’s most politically and economically significant bilateral engagements in recent years. The fact that it is the longest bilateral visit Vučić has made during his presidency points to a high degree of political trust between Belgrade and Beijing, as well as to Serbia’s increasingly assertive strategic positioning within China’s global economic, technological and geopolitical architecture.

The visit comes at a time of rapid transformation in the international system, marked by a gradual shift in the global balance of power towards Asia and the growing momentum of multipolar trends. Simultaneously, China is continuing its transition from a global manufacturing hub to a leading centre for high technologies, artificial intelligence, robotics, digital infrastructure and advanced industrial capacity, further consolidating its status as one of the key actors in the contemporary international order.

Vučić’s visit to Beijing carries particular geopolitical weight because it followed immediately after highly symbolic meetings between the Chinese leadership and US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. These meetings largely signalled a new phase in the redefinition of global power relations and in the shaping of the future architecture of the international system. Within this broader context, Serbia, although a medium-sized country by international standards, is indirectly entering a diplomatic arena in which the key parameters of the emerging multipolar order are taking shape. The fact that Beijing devoted considerable attention to the Serbian President so soon after meeting the leaders of the world's two pre-eminent military powers underscores Belgrade's growing strategic value within China's policy towards Europe and the Western Balkans.

In these circumstances, Serbia is seeking to establish itself as a regional technology, logistics and investment hub, and as China’s foremost partner in the Western Balkans. The visit therefore extends beyond the confines of a conventional diplomatic event. It sends a clear signal of Serbia’s ambition to move gradually from being primarily a beneficiary of Chinese capital for infrastructure projects to becoming a technology partner, production base and regional platform for the new industrial era.

China is currently Serbia’s most important trade and financial partner outside Europe, as further confirmed by the entry into force of the Free Trade Agreement between the Government of the People’s Republic of China and the Government of the Republic of Serbia on 1 July 2024. The Agreement provides for the gradual elimination or reduction of customs duties on around 20,000 products traded between the two countries, creating far more favourable conditions for the further expansion of trade, investment and industrial cooperation.

Annual trade in goods between Serbia and China is currently estimated at between USD 6.5 and 7.5 billion. Serbia’s exports to China exceed USD 1 billion, while imports from China stand at more than USD 5.5 billion, indicating a significant trade imbalance but also confirming Serbia’s growing integration into Chinese production and distribution chains. China has been among the five largest foreign investors in Serbia for several years, while the estimated cumulative value of Chinese foreign direct investment ranges from three to five billion euros, depending on the methodology used.

The largest Chinese investments are concentrated in mining, industry, energy and infrastructure. Particularly notable are Zijin Mining’s investments in Bor and Majdanpek, Linglong Tire’s investment in Zrenjanin and the infrastructure and digital projects implemented by Huawei and China Road and Bridge Corporation. According to available estimates, mining and metallurgy account for between 35 and 45 per cent of Chinese investment, infrastructure projects for 25 to 30 per cent and industrial production for 20 to 25 per cent, while information and communications technology and digital innovation still represent less than ten per cent of total investment.

For this very reason, one of the strategic priorities for future cooperation should be to significantly increase Chinese investment in research and development, artificial intelligence centres, digital innovation and advanced technologies. The long-term sustainability of the Serbia-China partnership will depend not only on the volume of trade and investment, but also on its capacity to evolve from a model driven by capital investment and infrastructure into one centred on knowledge transfer, technological development and the joint creation of innovation capabilities.

Following this visit, an ambitious target was set to raise total trade in goods to USD 10 billion a year. This projection reflects the clear political will of both sides to continue deepening economic ties and to build a new phase of strategic partnership, in which technological cooperation, digital transformation and innovation-led development could become as vital as the traditional infrastructure and industrial projects that have so far dominated Serbia-China relations.

From infrastructure to technology partnership

Until now, Serbia-China cooperation has been built primarily around infrastructure projects, energy, mining and heavy industry. The latest visit, however, points to a clear pivot towards technology, digitalisation and robotics.

Vučić’s remarks about the future of robotics and artificial intelligence should not be seen merely as political messages aimed at the domestic public, but also as a reflection of the Chinese development model that Serbia is seeking to adopt in part and tailor to its own circumstances. Of particular note is the announcement that robot production is set to begin in Šabac in July 2026—a move the authorities are framing as Serbia’s strategic technological leap ahead of the region.

The critical question will not be merely whether the first robot leaves the factory floor, but to what extent it will incorporate domestic expertise, Serbian engineers, local suppliers and national intellectual property. Should Serbia remain solely a site for the assembly of foreign technologies, the effects will be limited. If Serbia can harness Chinese investments to foster research centres, educational programmes and a local supply chain, this cooperation could evolve into genuine industrial modernisation and a long-term technological advance.

At the symbolic level, Vučić’s statement that “Serbia will soar to the skies once the first robot leaves the factory” sh

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