铜价跌破13,400美元/吨：中国需求走弱与110美元油价碰撞，面临17年供应短缺压力

Copper fell below US$13,400/t after weaker Chinese factory output, rising SHFE inventories, and Brent crude above US$110 tightened financial conditions for industrial metals.

China’s factory output slowed to 4.1% year-on-year in April 2026 from 5.7% previously, while spot copper premiums flipped into discounts, signalling demand destruction above US$13,500/t.

Supply constraints remain intact as average copper mine development timelines extend to 17 years and Chile faces zero forecast production growth between 2031 and 2040.

Capital continues flowing into advanced copper development assets despite volatility, as investors position for a projected 450,000-tonne refined copper deficit in 2026.

AI data centres, grid expansion, and electric vehicles are projected to increase strategic copper demand from 32% of global consumption in 2024 to 45% by 2040.

Copper Falls to US$13,394/t as Oil, Dollar & China Slowdown Trigger Short-Term Liquidation

London Metal Exchange three-month copper fell 0.35% to US$13,507.50 per tonne and hit an intraday low of US$13,394.50 per tonne, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange most-active contract dropped 1.40% to 104,330 yuan per tonne. Two forces are now operating on different timeframes: short-term liquidity stress from oil, the dollar, and softer Chinese activity data, against a 2026 refined copper deficit forecast of approximately 450,000 tonnes that no single macro variable can resolve.

UAE Drone Attacks Push Brent Above US$110 & Lift US Dollar to One-Month High, Pressuring Copper and Mining Equities

Brent crude moved above US$110 per barrel on May 18, 2026 after reported drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates over the weekend, lifting near-term inflation expectations and pushing the US dollar index to its strongest level in more than a month. Higher oil raises inflation prints, inflation prints delay Federal Reserve rate-cut pricing, higher real rates support the dollar, and a stronger dollar reduces the affordability of dollar-priced copper for buyers transacting in yuan, euro, or rupee.

Copper equity valuations modelled at long-term price decks above the US$12,000 per tonne minimum incentive level for new mine development become temporarily disconnected from spot during these episodes. Funded developers can hold their feasibility price assumptions through the volatility because their construction timelines extend well past current Federal Reserve rate-decision windows.

China’s 4.1% Factory Output Growth & Rising SHFE Inventories Signal Copper Demand Destruction Above US$13,500/t

China factory output grew 4.1% year-on-year in April 2026, down from 5.7% in March, while retail sales rose only 0.2%, with both readings missing consensus per data from the National Bureau of Statistics. China accounts for approximately 60% of global refined copper demand, which means a 160 basis point industrial production deceleration translates directly into measurable order-flow reductions at the cathode and rod level.

Shanghai Futures Exchange on-warrant copper stocks rose from 88,077 tonnes on May 11 to 97,011 tonnes on May 14, ending a decline that had run since mid-March, and Chinese spot copper premiums over Shanghai Futures Exchange prices flipped into a discount. These two indicators jointly signal price-induced demand destruction above US$13,500 per tonne.

Declining Ore Grades, Long Mine Timelines & Codelco Risk Continue Tightening Global Copper Supply

Mine development timelines, declining head grades, and operational risk at the largest state-owned producer are tightening the available supply base over a multi-year horizon, and these constraints operate independently of the dollar index or monthly Chinese activity data.

BHP Forecasts Zero Chile Copper Production Growth Through 2040

BHP forecasts zero net copper production growth in Chile from 2031 to 2040. The average copper mine development timeline now runs approximately 17 years from discovery to production. Ore grades continue to decline across Chile and Peru, which raises strip ratios, lifts processing costs per tonne of contained metal, and shrinks reserve life at existing operations.

Fitzroy Minerals President and Chief Executive Officer Merlin Marr-Johnson pointed to BHP’s August 2025 outlook, which forecast zero production growth from Chile between 2031 and 2040 despite rising capital intensity across both greenfield and brownfield developments. He stated:

“Production growth within Chile, and globally, is difficult. It’s a very mature industry that is struggling to maintain production. BHP said there’s going to be zero growth from Chile between 2031 and 2040. All of this shows that copper prices have to materially rerate.”

BHP’s outlook increases the strategic value of advanced copper projects outside Chile, particularly in Canada, Australia, and the United States, as supply deficits deepen into the late 2020s. It also strengthens the economics of lower-cost restart projects and suggests current copper price assumptions in many feasibility studies may be too conservative.

Chile Replaces Codelco Chairman After 20,000t Copper Reporting Discrepancy, Raising Governance Risk Across Global Supply Chains

Chile's government on May 14, 2026 named Bernardo Fontaine to replace Maximo Pacheco as chairman of Corporación Nacional del Cobre de Chile effective May 26, with Mining Minister Daniel Mas tasking the new board with an investigation and external audit. Diario Financiero reported that nearly 20,000 metric tons of copper were improperly included in Codelco's 2025 production report based on a preliminary internal audit.

Codelco is the world's largest copper producer and is targeting 1.7 million tonnes of output by 2030 after recording multi-decade production lows in 2022 and 2023. Governance instability and audit risk at the marginal supplier of refined copper raises the political risk premium applied to large state-owned producers and increases the relative valuation appeal of smaller scalable development assets with shorter timelines to first production.

Copper Prices Above US$5/lb Are Driving Major Financings Into Development Assets

Capital markets remain open for copper developers with defined assets. Equity raises and strategic investments executed during the May 2026 volatility window indicate that institutional and strategic capital is pricing through near-term spot weakness to a multi-year supply deficit. Current prices above the US$12,000 per tonne incentive level materially improve internal rate of return assumptions on projects that were already viable at lower price decks.

Copper Prices Above US$5/lb Are Expanding Project Economics Beyond Feasibility Base-Case Assumptions

Marimaca Copper closed a global treasury and secondary offering on February 26, 2026, raising C$409 million gross, including C$129.2 million in net proceeds to the company from the Canadian treasury component. Cash net of working capital increased to US$147.7 million at March 31, 2026 from US$62.7 million at year-end 2025, funding operations for at least the next 12 months. The Marimaca Oxide Deposit in Chile’s Antofagasta region is targeting 50,000 tonnes per year of copper production within three years, with potential silver by-product credits identified across the Pampa Medina drill database.

The Definitive Feasibility Study was modelled at US$4.30 per pound copper, a price deck the spot market has already breached on the upside.

Hayden Locke, President and Chief Executive Officer of Marimaca Copper, quantifies the impact of the move from feasibility-deck pricing to current spot:

“We ran at a US$4.30-per-pound copper price, which now seems awfully low given how much the copper market has moved. Obviously, everything looks a lot better with the copper price where it is today.”

C$30.75M Strategic Financing Funds 80,000m Drill Campaign at a 775Mlb Copper-Equivalent VMS System in Québec’s Abitibi Belt

Abitibi Metals closed a C$30.75 million private placement on May 15

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