IMF与坦桑尼亚达成协议拟释放3.755亿美元，预计2026年GDP增长5.9%通胀4.7%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Tanzania on the final reviews of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), unlocking access to USD 375.5 million in financing subject to Executive Board approval.

The agreement follows an IMF mission led by Nicolas Blancher that visited Tanzania between 28 April and 12 May 2026 to conduct the sixth and seventh reviews under the ECF and the third and fourth reviews under the RSF.

Upon Executive Board approval, the completion of the reviews will release SDR 283.85 million (approximately USD 375.5 million).

This will bring total IMF support to SDR 795.58 million (about USD 1,052 million) under the ECF arrangement and SDR 426.2 million (about USD 563.8 million) under the RSF arrangement.

According to the IMF, the broad objectives of both programs have been achieved.

The IMF stresses that growth remains strong, inflation has stayed within the Bank of Tanzania’s target range, international reserves coverage is adequate, and public spending on priority sectors such as education and health has increased.

The Fund projects Tanzania’s economic growth at 5.9% in 2026, with inflation rising to 4.7% and the current account deficit widening to 2.9% of GDP due to spillovers from the war in the Middle East.

Higher oil and fertilizer prices, along with disruptions to global aviation and value chains, are expected to weigh on agriculture, tourism, and transportation.

Over the medium term, growth is projected to reach its potential of 6.3%, with inflation remaining within the central bank’s 3-5% target range and the current account deficit staying below 3% of GDP, aided by high gold prices.

The IMF identified the main external risks as a slowdown in the global economy and trade, geoeconomic fragmentation, and a further decline in foreign development assistance, while domestic risks include potential social unrest, fiscal pressures, and a reform slowdown.

The Fund recommended that the Bank of Tanzania stand ready to raise policy rates if inflation pressures intensify, while allowing the exchange rate to remain the primary shock absorber.

It also called for timely payment of tax refunds, continued clearance of domestic arrears, and steadfast budget implementation to safeguard priority social spending.

Looking ahead, the IMF emphasized that achieving the goals of Tanzania’s Development Vision 2050 will require accelerated reforms in human capital development and private sector-led growth.

Key priorities include enhancing domestic revenues, strengthening public financial and investment management, reinforcing central bank independence, improving the business environment, and expanding the social safety net alongside investment in renewable energy.

“The economy’s ability to withstand spillovers from the war in the Middle East to date is welcome. Securing fuel supplies, allowing international oil price increases to pass through gradually to domestic prices, and relying on exchange rate flexibility have helped safeguard macroeconomic stability,” said Nicolas Blancher, head of the IMF mission.

During the mission, the IMF team met with the Minister of Finance, Ambassador Khamis Mussa Omar; the Bank of Tanzania Governor, Emmanuel Tutuba; other senior officials; development partners; private sector representatives; and civil society organizations.

About the ECF and RSF Programs in Tanzania

The Extended Credit Facility is an IMF lending instrument that provides financial assistance to low-income countries with protracted balance of payments problems, offering concessional terms and a longer repayment period than standard IMF facilities.

The Resilience and Sustainability Facility, launched by the IMF in 2022, provides affordable long-term financing to support countries undertaking reforms that address structural challenges such as climate change and pandemic preparedness.

Tanzania’s combined ECF and RSF programs have anchored the country’s macroeconomic stabilization agenda and supported reforms aimed at building buffers, strengthening resilience to climate shocks, and creating fiscal space for social and infrastructure spending.

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